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Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2030?

Before Nov 1, 2030
92%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 92 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
92¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
85¢
AFTER THE 1¢ FEE
-6¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 85.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 92c. Based on 41 settled sports markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 80% of the time (n=100). The price implies 92%, so historically this band has come in about 12 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.