Live odds / Sports

Seattle wins by over 1.5 runs?

Seattle wins by over 1.5 runs

33%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 33 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

31¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

35¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 35.2% of the time, and the crowd is charging 31c. Based on 261 settled sports markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 34% of the time (n=365). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Seattle vs New York Y Winner?31%Cincinnati vs Chicago WS Winner?17%Will Emiliana Arango win the Arango vs Podoroska: Qualification Round 2 match?62%Will Gary Woodland win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?2%Cincinnati vs Chicago WS Winner?84%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXMLBSPREAD-26AUG131335SEANYY-SEA2" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Seattle wins by over 1.5 runs? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXMLBSPREAD-26AUG131335SEANYY-SEA2">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.