Live odds / Sports

Chicago C wins by over 2.5 runs?

Chicago C wins by over 2.5 runs

30%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 30 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

28¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

22¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-4¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 22.2% of the time, and the crowd is charging 28c. Based on 288 settled sports markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 33% of the time (n=463). The price implies 30%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds men's cricket match: Sunrisers Leeds wins39%Chicago C wins by over 1.5 runs?39%St. Louis vs Chicago C Winner?62%Will Wyndham Clark win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?3%Will Tamara Korpatsch win the Joint vs Korpatsch: Round Of 128 match?41%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.