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Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29219.99 at the end of Sep 1, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

29,220 or above
27%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 27 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
15¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
14¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.0% of the time against a 15c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 1,326 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 24% of the time (n=1,539). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.