Will the natural gas close price be above 2.800 USD/MMBtu on August 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM ED

34%

implied chance of YES

The crowd may be underpricing this

Contracts like this one have settled YES 33.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 31c. Based on 234 settled markets across all categories in the 30-39c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 34% of the time (n=234). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXNATGASD-26AUG1117-T2.800" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the natural gas close price be above 2.800 USD/MMBtu on August 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM ED - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXNATGASD-26AUG1117-T2.800">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.