Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Economics

Will the natural gas close price be above 3.005 USD/MMBtu on September 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM

Above $3.005

17%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 17 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

18¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

14¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 14.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 18c. Based on 1,326 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=1,326). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Economics markets

Will the brent crude oil close price be above 95.50 USD/Bbl on September 02, 2026 at 5:00 37%Will the brent crude oil close price be above 94.50 USD/Bbl on September 02, 2026 at 5:00 60%Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $100.50 by Sep 30, 2026?13%Will the brent crude oil close price be above 96 USD/Bbl on September 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM 24%Will the brent crude oil close price be above 95 USD/Bbl on September 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM 46%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXNATGASD-26SEP0217-T3.005" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the natural gas close price be above 3.005 USD/MMBtu on September 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXNATGASD-26SEP0217-T3.005">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.