What are the odds of "What will be LeBron James's next team?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 31%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 31% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

What will be LeBron James's next team?

Miami

31%

implied chance of YES▼ 16 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 31 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

31¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

33¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 33.3% of the time against a 31c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 129 settled sports markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 32% of the time (n=187). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Los Angeles D vs Philadelphia Winner?49%Will Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira win the Ortenblad Nogueira vs Pereira: M25 Sao Paulo Roun36%San Diego vs Atlanta Winner?58%Will Tom Kim win the 3M Open?3%West Indies vs New Zealand match: New Zealand wins61%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM-MIA" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="What will be LeBron James's next team? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM-MIA">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.