Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Entertainment

Will The Entertainment System Is Down win Best Picture at the Oscars?

The Entertainment System Is Down

1%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 10% of the time (n=318). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 9 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Entertainment markets

Will My Brilliant Career: Season 1 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 17, 2026?1%Will Tires: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 17, 2026?8%Will Tires: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 17, 2026?75%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXOSCARPIC-27-ENT" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will The Entertainment System Is Down win Best Picture at the Oscars? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXOSCARPIC-27-ENT">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.