Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 3 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship?

Viktor Hovland

8%

implied chance of YES▲ 3 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 8 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

8¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

7¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 6.8% of the time against a 8c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 206 settled sports markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 8% of the time (n=371). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?64%Will Wyndham Clark win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?1%Will Sergey Fomin win the Dougaz vs Fomin: Semifinal match?54%Will Jordan Spieth win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?2%Will Viktor Hovland win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?8%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.