What are the odds of "Will it rain in Miami on Sep 4, 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 90%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 90% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Weather

Will it rain in Miami on Sep 4, 2026?

Miami

90%

implied chance of YES▲ 59 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 90 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

90¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

92¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 92.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 90c. Based on 721 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 92% of the time (n=721). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Weather markets

Will it rain in Washington DC on Sep 4, 2026?48%Will it rain in New York City on Sep 4, 2026?99%Will the maximum temperature be 75-76° on Sep 4, 2026?10%Will the maximum temperature be >78° on Sep 4, 2026?32%Will it rain in Newark on Sep 4, 2026?14%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXRAIN-26SEP04-MIA" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will it rain in Miami on Sep 4, 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXRAIN-26SEP04-MIA">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.