Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will Russell Fry qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Senate Republican speci

Russell Fry

40%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 40 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

39¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

34¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 33.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 39c. Based on 234 settled markets across all categories in the 30-39c band (we do not yet hold enough other history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 48% of the time (n=370). The price implies 40%, so historically this band has come in about 8 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.