Will Ralph Norman qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Senate Republican spec

65%

implied chance of YES

The crowd may be underpricing this

Contracts like this one have settled YES 67.7% of the time, and the crowd is charging 65c. Based on 248 settled markets across all categories in the 60-69c band (we do not yet hold enough other history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 68% of the time (n=248). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXSCRSENSADVANCE-26AUG11-RNOR" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Ralph Norman qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Senate Republican spec - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXSCRSENSADVANCE-26AUG11-RNOR">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.