Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 26, 2026 be above 1288.52?

Above 1288.52

89%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 89 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

89¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

88¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 88.2% of the time against a 89c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 51 settled other markets in the 80-89c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 85% of the time (n=613). The price implies 89%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Gold price up in next 15 mins?61%Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 26, 2026 be above 1208.52?99%Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 26, 2026 be above 1308.52?1%Silver price up in next 15 mins?81%Will the S&P 500 be above 7677.28 on Aug 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?59%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.