Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?

Mental Institution

80%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 80 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

78¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

74¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 73.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 78c. Based on 314 settled markets across all categories in the 70-79c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 81% of the time (n=226). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Politics markets

What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?30%What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?44%What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?31%Will Donald Trump issue any announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming the next Whit56%What will Donald Trump say during next White House livestream (excluding Remarks in Nassau4%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.