Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?

Zohran / Mamdani

62%

implied chance of YES▼ 6 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 62 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

62¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

65¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 65.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 62c. Based on 304 settled markets across all categories in the 60-69c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 65% of the time (n=304). The price implies 62%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Politics markets

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for North55%Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for North65%Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for North20%Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for North35%Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for North45%

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