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What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center?

Fake News
21%
implied chance of YES▼ 18 today
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 21 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
23¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
25¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 25.1% of the time against a 23c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 1,028 settled markets across all categories in the 20-29c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 25% of the time (n=1,028). The price implies 21%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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