Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 30

11%

implied chance of YES

The crowd may be underpricing this

Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 12c. Based on 1,326 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=1,326). The price implies 11%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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