Will there be at least 5 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 30

6%

implied chance of YES

The crowd may be underpricing this

Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 10c. Based on 1,326 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 3c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,004). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXTRUMPNOMNUM-26AUG30-T5">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

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