Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Will Ian Machado Garry win the Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry 330 fight by Decision?

Ian Machado Garry by Decision

17%

implied chance of YES▼ 1 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 17 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

17¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

11¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 10.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 17c. Based on 295 settled sports markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=432). The price implies 17%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?64%Will Wyndham Clark win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?1%Will Jordan Spieth win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?2%Will Viktor Hovland win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?8%Will Sungjae Im win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?5%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXUFCMOV-26AUG15MAKMGI-MGIDEC" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Ian Machado Garry win the Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry 330 fight by Decision? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXUFCMOV-26AUG15MAKMGI-MGIDEC">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.