Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Esports

Will Enterprise Esports win the Team Liquid vs. Enterprise Esports Valorant match?

Enterprise Esports

1%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 8% of the time (n=744). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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More live Esports markets

FUT Esports wins8%Spirit wins92%Will TEAM VISION win The International?1%Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Spirit vs. FUT Esports CS2 match?99%Will FUT Esports win map 4 in the Spirit vs. FUT Esports match?15%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.