Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Esports

Will Evil Geniuses win the KRÜ Esports vs. Evil Geniuses Valorant match?

Evil Geniuses

23%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 23 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

23¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

30¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 30.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 23c. Based on 92 settled esports markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the esports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 25% of the time (n=1,028). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Esports markets

Will KRÜ Esports win map 1 in the KRÜ Esports vs. Evil Geniuses match?85%Will KRÜ Esports win the KRÜ Esports vs. Evil Geniuses Valorant match?73%Will Evil Geniuses win map 1 in the KRÜ Esports vs. Evil Geniuses match?19%Will over 2.5 maps be played in the KRÜ Esports vs. Evil Geniuses Valorant match?46%Will KRÜ Esports win map 2 in the KRÜ Esports vs. Evil Geniuses match?56%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.