Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Esports

Will Twisted Minds Orchid win the FOKUS Sakura vs. Twisted Minds Orchid Valorant match?

Twisted Minds Orchid

99%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 99 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 80% of the time (n=100). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 19 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Esports markets

Will Bubliki win the NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS vs. Bubliki League of Legends match?22%Will Red Feet win the Red Feet vs. BESTIA Academy CS2 match?28%Will NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS win the NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS vs. Bubliki League of Legends mat80%Will BESTIA Academy win the Red Feet vs. BESTIA Academy CS2 match?73%Will BESTIA Academy win map 2 in the Red Feet vs. BESTIA Academy match?67%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXVALORANTGAME-26JUL211400FKSTMO-TMO" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Twisted Minds Orchid win the FOKUS Sakura vs. Twisted Minds Orchid Valorant match? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXVALORANTGAME-26JUL211400FKSTMO-TMO">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.