What will JD Vance say during press conference originally scheduled for September 3, 2026?
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
42%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 42 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
43¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
43¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 42.9% of the time against a 43c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,276 settled markets across all categories in the 40-49c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=2,276). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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