Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will Dan Bilzerian receive at least 12.5% of the popular vote in the FL-06 Republican prim

At least 12.5%

99%

implied chance of YES▲ 79 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 99 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 89% of the time (n=346). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 10 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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