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Will James Fishback receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republica

At least 15%
12%
implied chance of YES▼ 2 today
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 12 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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