Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will James Fishback receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican

At least 7%

77%

implied chance of YES▼ 1 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 77 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

77¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

79¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 78.7% of the time against a 77c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 47 settled other markets in the 70-79c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 75% of the time (n=480). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will both teams score?63%Doosan Bears vs NC Dinos: First Inning Run?99%Will Dan Bilzerian receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the FL-06 Republican primar1%Will Angela Murray be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 21, 2026?6%Gold price up in next 15 mins?88%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFISJFIS-7" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will James Fishback receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFISJFIS-7">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.