Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend at least 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100

At least 4 weeks

41%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 41 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

74¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

72¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 72.1% of the time against a 74c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 61 settled other markets in the 70-79c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=1,909). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Both Teams To Score99%Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 26, 2026 be above 1208.52?99%Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 26, 2026 be above 1308.52?1%Will average **gas prices** be above $4.1000?51%Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend at least 1 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 97%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXWEEKSNUM1-26SEP26-CHO-4" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend at least 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100  - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXWEEKSNUM1-26SEP26-CHO-4">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.