Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 20, 2026?

68%

implied chance of YES▲ 31 today

Priced about right

Contracts like this one have settled YES 67.8% of the time against a 68c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 214 settled markets across all categories in the 60-69c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 68% of the time (n=214). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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