Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 87.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?

8%

implied chance of YES▲ 2 today

The crowd may be overcharging for this

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 24.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 27c. Based on 1,539 settled markets across all categories in the 20-29c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,004). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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