Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will Drake have above 15M daily views at any point during August 10, 2026 - August 16, 202

Above 15M

19%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 19 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

17¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

17¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 16.7% of the time against a 17c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 54 settled other markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 13% of the time (n=283). The price implies 19%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will Rasmus Højgaard win the Danish Golf Championship?2%Will Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra win the Danish Golf Championship?1%Will Ben Kohles win the Albertsons Boise Open presented by Chevron?9%Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the Danish Golf Championship?2%Will average **gas prices** be above $4.060?97%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXYTVIEWSW-DRA26AUG16-15.0M" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Drake have above 15M daily views at any point during August 10, 2026 - August 16, 202 - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXYTVIEWSW-DRA26AUG16-15.0M">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.