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Will Morgan Wallen have above 5.25M daily views at any point during August 24, 2026 - Augu

Above 5.25M
20%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 20 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
25¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
19¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-4¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 19.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 25c. Based on 118 settled other markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 24% of the time (n=1,214). The price implies 20%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.