July 13, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

10.1%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$197

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 10.1% to hit, missing was always about 90% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Lorenzo Sonego to winSonego win the Sonego vs Schwaerzler68¢

2Sahith Theegala to win50¢

3Washington wins by over 3.5 points to winSAC vs WAS74¢

4Tie to winDenver Summit FC vs Houston65¢

5Dallas wins by over 3.5 points to winCHI vs DAL62¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 30% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.