July 14, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

6.1%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$326

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 6.1% to hit, missing was always about 94% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Jude Bellingham: score or assistENG vs ARG36¢

2Arthur Rinderknech to winRinderknech vs Tabur68¢

3Justin Boulais to winBoulais win the Boulais vs Zhang66¢

4there be 115+ home runs hit73¢

5Over 170.5 points scoredWashington vs Toronto52¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 25% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.