July 15, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

3.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$622

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 3.2% to hit, missing was always about 97% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Hao Sheng Koay to winSheng Koay win the Koay vs Yazdani45¢

2The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 4039¢

3Stefanos Tsitsipas to winTsitsipas win the Kym vs Tsitsipas72¢

4Matt Hulme to winHulme win the Bouzige vs Hulme48¢

5Chicago wins by over 1.5 points to winSEA vs CHI53¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 17% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.