July 16, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

4.6%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

2 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$438

off $20

It missed, with 2 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 4.6% to hit, missing was always about 95% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Daniel Merida to winMerida win the Merida vs Droguet62¢

2England to winFrance vs England38¢

3Alexander Bublik to winBublik win the Bublik vs Halys69¢

4India to winEngland vs India52¢

5Los Angeles D to winLos Angeles D vs New54¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 20% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.