July 17, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

4.9%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$404

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 4.9% to hit, missing was always about 95% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Guadalajara to winGuadalajara vs Toluca45¢

2Los Angeles D to winLos Angeles D vs New53¢

3both teams score: Reg Time: Both Teams To ScoreESP vs ARG52¢

4both teams score: Reg Time: Both Teams To ScoreFRA vs ENG70¢

5The Open Championship: Will Russell Henley finish top 4057¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 21% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.