July 21, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

7.7%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

2 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$258

off $20

It missed, with 2 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 7.7% to hit, missing was always about 92% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Zhizhen Zhang to winZhang win the Zink vs Zhang71¢

2Yosuke Watanuki to winIlagan win the Watanuki vs Ilagan65¢

3Dominique Malonga: 10+ reboundsMIN vs SEA49¢

4Total Runs: Over 8.5 runs scoredSan Diego vs Atlanta59¢

5Panna Udvardy to winPridankina vs Udvardy58¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 26% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.