July 22, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

12.5%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

3 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$160

off $20

It missed, with 3 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 12.5% to hit, missing was always about 87% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Cruz Azul to winCruz Azul vs Puebla74¢

2Hong Yi Cody Wong to winCody Wong win the Sebov vs Wong75¢

3Cleveland wins by over 1.5 runs to winMIN vs CLE75¢

4Washington to winWashington vs Colorado64¢

5James McCabe to winMcCabe win the McCabe vs Chan47¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 34% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

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Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.