July 23, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

5.4%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$371

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 5.4% to hit, missing was always about 95% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Anthony Kay: 5+ strikeoutsCWS vs TEX47¢

2Indiana wins the 1H by over 5.5 points to winCONN vs IND64¢

3Atlanta wins first 5 innings to winDiego be the San Diego vs Atlanta74¢

4Michael Conforto: 1+ hitsDET vs CHC55¢

5Shakira Austin: 10+ reboundsLVW vs SH44¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 22% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.