July 24, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

4.4%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$458

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 4.4% to hit, missing was always about 96% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance a: Before Jul 30, 202652¢

2Ya Yi Yang to winYa Yi Yang win the Yang vs Tsao65¢

3Total Runs: Over 8.5 runs scoredColorado vs Milwaukee50¢

4Alexander Bublik to winBublik win the Bublik vs Etcheverry63¢

5Maiar Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz to winSherif Ahmed Abdelaziz vs Badosa41¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 20% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

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Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.