July 25, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

4.0%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$504

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 4.0% to hit, missing was always about 96% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs to winLAD vs NYM48¢

2Islam Dulatov by KO/TKO/DQ to winIslam Dulatov vs Wellington64¢

3Halys: Total Games: Over 23.5 gamesAlexander Bublik vs Quentin52¢

4Alexander Bublik to winBublik win the Bublik vs Halys69¢

5Gauthier Onclin to winDedura-Palomero vs Onclin36¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 19% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.