July 26, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

13.0%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$154

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 13.0% to hit, missing was always about 87% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Garrett Johns to winJohns win the Magadan vs Johns79¢

2Coop: Over 279.5 points scoredTeam Spoon vs Team55¢

3Desert Vipers to winGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Desert79¢

4Tigres to winTigres vs San69¢

5Jackson Koivun to win55¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 34% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.