July 29, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

7.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

4 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$277

off $20

It missed, with 4 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 7.2% to hit, missing was always about 93% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Michael King: 6+ strikeoutsCOL vs SD44¢

2Peter Lambert: 6+ strikeoutsHOU vs LAA46¢

3Naomi Osaka to winOsaka win the Krueger vs Osaka76¢

4James Duckworth to winDuckworth win the Mayo vs Duckworth61¢

5women's Pro Basketball game: Over 177.5 points: Over 177.5 points scoredConnecticut vs Washington77¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 27% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.