July 30, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

6.1%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$325

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 6.1% to hit, missing was always about 94% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Arthur Gea to winArthur Gea win the Gea vs Zheng40¢

2Luciano Darderi to winDarderi win the Svrcina vs Darderi66¢

3Mark Lajal to winMark Lajal win the Lajal vs Chidekh77¢

4Angeles D Total Runs: Over 9.5 runs scoredSeattle vs Los54¢

5women's Pro Basketball game: Over 75.5 first half points: Over 75.5 1H points scoredGolden State vs Phoenix56¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 24% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.