July 31, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

3.8%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$525

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 3.8% to hit, missing was always about 96% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Brad Dalke to win50¢

2Juventus to winJuventus vs Nice64¢

3Total Runs: Over 10.5 runs scoredBoston vs A's59¢

4Ryuki Matsuda to winMatsuda win the Matsuda vs Becroft48¢

5Natsuho Arakawa to winArakawa win the Arakawa vs Stevens42¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 18% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.