August 1, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

2.8%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$723

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 2.8% to hit, missing was always about 97% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1C Total Runs: Over 6.5 runs scoredNew York Y vs Chicago47¢

2Angeles D Total Runs: Over 8.5 runs scoredBoston vs Los39¢

3Marina Bassols Ribera to winJimenez Kasintseva vs Bassols77¢

4Emiliana Arango to winArango win the Arango vs Boisson35¢

5Max Dahlin to winDahlin win the Mackenzie vs Dahlin56¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 16% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.