August 4, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

3.7%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$541

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 3.7% to hit, missing was always about 96% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Flavio Cobolli to winCobolli win the Cobolli vs Hanfmann57¢

2Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs to winLAA vs BAL44¢

3Gabriel Diallo to winDiallo win the Darderi vs Diallo61¢

4Iryna Shymanovich to winIatcenko vs Shymanovich35¢

5Arina Arifullina to winZelinskaya vs Arifullina69¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 18% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.