August 5, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

2.6%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

2 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$777

off $20

It missed, with 2 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 2.6% to hit, missing was always about 97% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Alexei Popyrin to winPopyrin win the Collignon vs Popyrin39¢

2Total Runs: Over 7.5 runs scoredToronto vs Houston53¢

3David Skinns to win50¢

4Flavio Cobolli -1.5 games to winCOB vs HAN53¢

5Indiana wins by over 1.5 points to winLVI vs ND47¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 14% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.