August 6, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

5.7%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$351

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 5.7% to hit, missing was always about 94% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Carolyn Ansari to winAnsari win the Ansari vs Collins55¢

2Spencer Jones: 1+ hitsSTL vs NYY39¢

3Daniela Vismane to winVismane win the Vismane vs Lopatetska61¢

4Jeremy Gschwendtner to winGschwendtner vs Hausberger67¢

5Matthew Dellavedova to winDellavedova vs Chung65¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 23% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.