August 7, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

7.3%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$272

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 7.3% to hit, missing was always about 93% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Atlanta wins by over 3.5 runs to winMIA vs ATL74¢

2W100 Landisville PA Round of 16 match: YeXin MaWill YeXin Ma win the Ma vs Scott56¢

3Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points to winLAM vs IN48¢

4Bayern Munich to winAston Villa vs Bayern52¢

5Alexandra Eala to winEala win the McNally vs Eala71¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 26% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.